The Framework
Claim to investment decision
1
Claim
State exactly what's being asserted, precisely enough that it could turn out to be false.
2
Evidence
Gather what's already been shown — company claims, public data, prior results — and note how independently checkable each piece is.
3
Test
Design a test, or a verification protocol, that could actually contradict the claim.
4
Benchmark
Compare results against a stated baseline or reference figure, not just the claim in isolation.
5
Stress Test
Push past the conditions under which the claim was originally demonstrated.
6
Result
State plainly what held up and what didn't.
7
Remaining Risk
Name what still isn't known, even after testing.
8
Investment Decision
Feed the finding into the call on whether — and how much — to invest.